Editor's View

This time it just might work. The recent announcement that Merlin Entertainments Group Ltd. purchased the Cypress Gardens theme park in Winter Haven came as welcome news to us at Florida Real Estate Journal. Considering the park is almost literally in our back yard, we will be watching in anticipation for the promised economic impact to Polk County and Central Florida.

Carl Schurz (1829-1906) was a German revolutionary, American statesman and reformer, and Union Army general in the American Civil War. In 1869, he became the first German-born American elected to the U.S Senate, according to Wikipedia, and in later years was a prominent independent in American politics, noted for his high principles, his avoidance of political partisanship, and his moral conscience.

Carl Schurz (1829-1906) was a German revolutionary, American statesman and reformer, and Union Army general in the American Civil War. In 1869, he became the first German-born American elected to the U.S Senate, according to Wikipedia, and in later years was a prominent independent in American politics, noted for his high principles, his avoidance of political partisanship, and his moral conscience.

So what can we expect - economically speaking - for the new year? I recently read an interesting forecast from the Wells Fargo Securities Economics Group titled Annual Economic Outlook - 2010. It was nothing if not thorough, so I’ll provide what I hope is a good summary here. You can download the whole thing from www.wellsfargo.com/com/research/economics.

Hopefully, it’s the shape of things to come for commercial real estate.

I just had an interesting - and encouraging - discussion with Mark Cooney, president of The Land Sharks, the land brokerage division of The Duncan Companies in Tampa. He runs the show with fellow ex-GVA Advantis alums Randy Mills and Michele Whalen.

Cooney said the last 60 days or so have seen a 50% increase in activity on the land side of their business - which focuses on outparcels and infill sites in an area reaching from St. Petersburg to Daytona Beach, south to Naples and as far north as Gainesville.

For all the talk about down markets and high anxiety in commercial real estate these days, a relatively young Tampa-based retail investment sales firm is seeing some good times right now.

Since its inception just over three years ago, Plaza Advisors has sold 22 shopping centers - including six so far this year, with three more in the pipeline.

Company founder and co-managing partner Jim Michalak said the sales are indicative of several things about the Florida retail scene - not the least of which is the general lack of liquidity.

John Stone, director of multifamily investments for Colliers Arnold in Clearwater, has been around commercial real estate for a long time. He doesn’t strike me as a person given to extremes of pessimism or enthusiasm about the business.

Professionals, like John Stone, understand their industries and are usually measured in their responses to whatever comes their way.

A new organization aimed at getting displaced commercial real estate professionals back into the workforce is meeting with greater success even as the industry’s job climate worsens.

About 130 “REbounders” are now attending each twice-monthly of Real Estate Lives, organized late last year by a group of Tampa Bay-area industry veterans as a source encouragement, training and job leads. “REbounders” are those professionals who have become casualties of this deep and enduring commercial real estate recession.

Some say we’re at the beginning of the end of what has been a very sharp recession - and a very painful one for the commercial real estate industry.

Based on what he’s seeing out there, Lee Arnold might say it another way. To him, we might be at the start of the beginning of the initial stages of a recovery.

If that sounds a little tentative, it is. While Arnold is genuinely enthusiastic about some of the things he’s seeing in the marketplace, he knows that a few good deals do not a trend make.

What do you call a banker with half a brain? Gifted! Pretty good, huh? I stole that joke from Alan Rowe, president and CEO of 1st Commercial Bank of Florida in Orlando.

I had the pleasure of meeting Alan during a reception and dinner for the Orlando Alumni Chapter of Liberty University. We spoke for a few minutes about the country’s economic woes, and I came away convinced - albeit grudgingly - that Congress and President Bush did in fact do the right thing late last year in enacting bailouts to avert economic upheaval.

Though they certainly don’t want to be idle, the fact is that many commercial real estate professionals are finding themselves with more time on their hands these days. And these practitioners are rightly trying to drum up new business by increasing their networking efforts. We see it in more activity on our FREJLink.com networking site, and some commercial real estate groups are reporting record attendance at meetings.

Interesting times - such as these - are times of unusual opportunity for those with the knowledge and experience to take advantage of them.

That’s the message of the new Florida CCIM Chapter president, Mike Shelton, as he takes the organization through commercial real estate market conditions that he admits have become surprisingly difficult.

So what are he and other Florida CCIMs doing to make their way through the mess?

We haven’t written about it in FREJ for a while, but Hometown Democracy remains a clear and present danger to Florida’s economy in general and commercial real estate in particular.

That’s the word from Carol Saviak, executive director of Orlando-based Coalition for Property Rights. In a recent column, Saviak advised readers that the next 21 months could determine Florida’s long-term economic fate.

The cruel irony is that TARP - the federal government's Troubled Asset Relief Program - has provided little to no relief for commercial real estate. That's the consensus among most of the property finance professionals I've spoken with recently, but there are many reasons for the situation, they said.

I agreed to conceal their identities in exchange for some candor about Washington's intervention in the banking crisis, so you'll have to trust that my sources are all very experienced and have long track records in handling money for commercial real estate projects.

If I had to guess, I’d say a good percentage of you have given at least some thought to the possibility of losing your job as this recession deepens - particularly for commercial real estate.

Well, we’re here to help. I just received across my desk a list of 10 tips to help you “recession-proof” your career. They come from Cher Murphy, president of Cher Murphy PR (www.chermurphypr.com), a public relations firm with offices in Miami and Virginia.

There are, of course, no guarantees. You could do all the right things and still get laid off. But taking action will do two things: